SEATTLE — The Washington Office of Financial Management expects fewer jobs, higher costs, and more uncertainty in response to the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
The report notes that while the current tariff rate is lower, it uses the 27% average tariff announced in April as part of the White House’s “Liberation Day” tariff package.
“There is no scenario in which these tariffs are good for Washingtonians,” Governor Bob Ferguson said in a press conference about the report. “Don’t be fooled by the administration; Washington’s working families, businesses, and the state will bear the costs of these tariffs.”
The report acknowledges that some manufacturing jobs, like fabricated metal, could see a resurgence because of tariffs, but expects losses in farming and the aerospace sector to outweigh those gains, predicting a net loss of 31,930 jobs by 2029.
That could equate to $1.34 billion in unrealized wages for Washington workers.
Additionally, grocery prices could increase 16.6% because of tariffs’ impacts on food being brought in from around the globe. The report also lays out the potential impacts of reciprocal and retaliatory tariffs.
Higher costs and decreased sales combined would cost businesses $8.1 billion by 2029.
“Until Congress decides to reassert its authority on trade and the check to unilateral authority of the President, the costs will continue to rise for businesses and families.” Washington State Treasurer Mike Pellicciotti said during the press conference.
“I’m not going to dispute that there will be some effect, but I think the numbers, again, are projections. We don’t know that any of that’s going to actually happen.” said Washington State GOP Chair Jim Walsh.
Walsh points to increased taxes that Ferguson signed into law as potentially having an impact on Washington’s economy as well.
“This business-to-business sales tax that takes effect October 1to outweigh those gains far. It’s not one that will show up to most normal people buying something retail, but it will affect businesses that do certain kinds of business.” Walsh said.
Ferguson acknowledged that “anytime your raising impacts on business that’s not a good thing, that’s not what I wanted to do as governor,” saying the increase was necessary to balance a multi-billion dollar budget shortfall.
He hopes the projections that led to the deficit are now fixed for future years.
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